The November 2024 presidential elections in the United States will be a pivotal event in the country’s political history, going beyond mere electoral mechanics to touch the very essence of democracy and government management. Following President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, the political landscape has changed dramatically, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to assume the Democratic nomination. Her subsequent selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate signals a clear strategic bet on unity and resilience within the party, which could represent a possible resurgence of the Democratic coalition.
The Resurgent Democratic Party
The 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be a crucial partisan event, likely characterized by a palpable sense of optimism and historical significance. While Kamala Harris is expected to be unanimously chosen as the Democratic candidate, the formalities of the convention will provide opportunities to gather support among the various factions within the party. Harris' candidacy is not only a symbolic victory for American women’s representation against a misogynistic opponent, but would also be a significant milestone in racial pluralism as the first woman of color nominated for the presidency by a major national party. Moreover, Kamala Harris' nomination could serve as a rallying point for progressive activism in a nation undergoing profound changes and heated ideological conflicts.
The choice of Tim Walz as Harris' vice presidential candidate represents an effort to balance the aspirations of the progressive wing with the sensibilities of moderate sectors. Walz is an experienced politician known for his pragmatism and empathy in governance. His political roots in the traditionally Democratic state of Minnesota allow Harris' candidacy to appeal to a wide range of voters. Walz has an excellent track record in Minnesota on education, healthcare, and climate change advocacy, elements that could deeply resonate in urban and rural electoral districts.
Electoral Geography
As Democrats gear up for the November elections, attention must focus on key states historically favoring Republicans but showing signs of weakening support. States like Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina present unique opportunities for a potential Democratic resurgence. The demographics in these states indicate significant shifts in various regions: in Texas and Georgia, the growth of diverse and younger populations bodes well for Democrats. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas saw a 15.9% population increase between 2010 and 2020, driven primarily by Latino and Asian-American communities, demographics traditionally leaning toward Democrats.
To effectively regain these key states, Democrats must develop specific outreach strategies focusing on local issues and grassroots movements. They should align with the struggles of working-class citizens, notably regarding access to healthcare and economic opportunities. Addressing economic disparities directly by advocating for universal healthcare and increasing the minimum wage can empower voters to identify with the Democratic vision.
Proposals for Progress
Although political parties in the U.S. don’t represent specific ideologies beyond Corporate Ideology, defined in "profit over people," the current landscape articulates a strong ideological struggle ranging from confronting neo-fascist and far-right ideologies to proposals of a progressive nature. Both Democratic and Republican parties are Corporate parties. However, in American social culture, there is currently a strong clash between neo-fascist and progressive ideologies. For the Democratic candidacy to stand strong against Donald Trump (who has maintained a consistent solid base thanks to his populist message, charismatic displays, and incendiary rhetoric), clear and viable proposals must be the backbone of the Democratic campaign strategy. The risks of Trump’s explosive rhetoric cannot be underestimated, as survey data suggests it continues to motivate a committed block of voters.
Democrats can counter Trump’s appeal by prioritizing comprehensive healthcare reform, addressing both the immediate consequences stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and structural inequalities in the U.S. healthcare system. They should also emphasize economic policies aimed at reducing inequality, such as taxing the wealthy and supporting small businesses, while pushing for more ambitious climate legislation linking sustainability and environment protection to job creation.
Democrats, with Harris and Walz at the forefront, must advocate for and promote justice system reform, immigration policies emphasizing compassion over division, and an educational agenda offering tangible aid to students and professionals burdened by significant student loan debt. Engaging in open dialogues about systemic racism and inequality can help mobilize marginalized voters and broaden the coalition supporting their candidacy.
The Coming Political Landscape
The 2024 U.S. presidential elections are expected to be among the most polarized in recent history, marked by immense social discontent and profound ideological divisions characterizing contemporary politics. According to recent Gallup polls, dissatisfaction with the federal government and polarization are at record levels, underscoring the need for an unequivocally progressive yet unifying platform.
Several scenarios could unfold in the lead-up to the elections: a successful Democratic mobilization could mark the beginning of unprecedented participation among young and minority voters. Conversely, a cohesive narrative addressing voters' concerns honestly could attract moderates seeking stability in government. In contrast, a divided Democratic coalition (if progressive and moderate factions fail to align) could hinder their chances against an imposing and charismatic opponent like Trump, whose campaign is likely to exploit any signs of incipient division.
The 2024 U.S. presidential elections will inevitably shape the nation’s course for years to come. While radical or structural changes may not be within reach, regardless of the election outcome, certain aspects of American society will likely remain consistent from 1970 to today.
In terms of domestic policies, the United States will continue to be a nation that sustains and reproduces wealth concentration facilitating power concentration and unprecedented economic inequality. Regulators (Congress and the Executive branch) will remain controlled by the regulated (Corporations). Both Democrats and Republicans have supported the expansion of the military-industrial complex and increased surveillance and security powers, often at the expense of civil liberties; that trend is unlikely to change.
On the international political stage, the U.S. will continue to be a militarily and politically interventionist nation, ostensibly promoting democracy but often yielding results that primarily benefit American corporate interests. Whether Democrat or Republican wins, the U.S.’s Economic Imperialism will remain the same, promoting international economic policies favoring large American corporations, often impoverishing developing nations.
However, there are essential differences between Democrats and Republicans, especially concerning the existential possibility of socially organized human survival. While Republicans (specifically Trump) promote neo-fascist policies rooted in racism, denial of rights, acceptance of conspiracy theories, far-right extremism, and climate change denial, Democrats have a more moderate political approach and socially supportive policies protecting majorities and advocating for environmental protection against climate change challenges. These differences should be enough to favor Democrats in the upcoming elections, and these are the differences that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz should promote.
A significant portion of the Republican Party believes that violence is necessary to "save" the country. This belief manifests in armed militias and the January 6 attack on the Capitol, which was undoubtedly an attempted coup. There are sophisticated efforts to undermine democracy from the Republican Party, taking measures to ensure future attempts to overturn election results are more successful. This includes gerrymandering, voter suppression, and promoting the 'Big Lie' that the 2020 elections were stolen. There is a clear trend towards neo-fascism from within the Republican Party, which, in a society like the United States with declining social cohesion and effective organizing capacity, makes the population more susceptible to demagoguery and authoritarianism. This trend is evident in the proliferation of disinformation and propaganda. The proliferation of false narratives and conspiracy theories creates an environment where people can be easily manipulated and distrust democratic institutions.
From that perspective, the Democratic Party is obligated to halt the advance of neo-fascism in the United States, and that challenge is practically universal because it’s not the same if a small nation like Hungary becomes a fascist state as it is for the most powerful nation on the planet to have a fascist government.
There is much at stake for partisan politics and the democratic ethos in general. By nominating Kamala Harris alongside Tim Walz, the Democratic Party has the opportunity to redefine its identity and reach a divided electorate to create a mandate for change. Grounded in progressive principles and committed to unity, they are on the cusp of advancing a transformative agenda or succumbing to the allure of populism that has dominated recent politics. As this critical juncture unfolds, it remains imperative for Democrats to unify their base, connect with moderate voters, and present a future that truly embodies the dreams and aspirations of the majority of Americans.