(* José M. Santana (Former MIT Research Associate – Noam Chomsky)
The Venezuelan crisis, often represented as a simple confrontation between dictatorship and democracy, is actually a much more nuanced geopolitical game.
What is at stake in Venezuela is not "Dictatorship Vs. Democracy" and that is why Venezuela is in a classic zugzwang scenario, where every move of the Venezuelan people, trapped between Maduro’s government and the opposition, is like having to choose between drowning or burning to death, and both options only deepen the suffering of Venezuelans. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this narrative is a carefully constructed smoke screen that hides the true power dynamics at play.
While Maduro’s authoritarianism provides a convenient pretext for interventionism, this narrative conveniently overlooks the long history of U.S. foreign policy, manipulating Latin American affairs for economic gain. Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, the largest globally (303.8 billion barrels of oil), expose the true motivations on the political stage of Venezuela; where it is not about a benevolent struggle for democracy, but about geopolitical and economic interests in the region.
One might wonder why the international community has left the Dominican Republic alone – with the exception of Kenya – in seeking solutions to Haiti’s eternal crisis and yet with Venezuela they have been extremely belligerent? The answer is simple, first of all, Haiti does not have oil wealth like Venezuela, and the harsh reality is that no one cares about a country of black people, a "shit hole", as it has often been called, on an island where the only country directly affected is the Dominican Republic.
Venezuela’s wealth of natural resources has resulted in its worst curse. Venezuela’s oil is not only of interest to the U.S., it is also of great interest to Russia, China, and almost all the world’s powers.
As the old saying goes: "Love and interest went to the field one day, but interest prevailed over the love it had".
Similarly, the Venezuelan opposition, often presented as saviors, is not free from complicity. Accusations of corruption, elitism, murders inside and outside Venezuela, with involvement in a genocidal past in El Salvador and a callous indifference towards the impoverished majority, raise alarming questions about their true loyalty and motivations. Therefore, the Venezuelan people are trapped in a geopolitical game, their destiny determined by external forces.
Just as defending Maduro does not mean defending socialism or progressivism; defending the opposition does not mean defending democracy and it is rather a defense of traditional U.S. geopolitical interests and a resistance to other geopolitical interests as well (Russia and China). Freeing oneself from this zugzwang requires the Venezuelan people to reject the manipulative narratives promoted by both Maduro and the opposition. Popular sectors must forge an independent path, one that defends national sovereignty, economic justice, and social equality. A grassroots movement that transcends traditional political divisions, uniting Venezuelans from all walks of life, is crucial to reclaiming their future.
However, a true resolution also requires a critical reevaluation of the foreign policy of powers in Latin America. Abandoning dominion ambitions and respecting Venezuela’s right to self-determination are non-negotiable. Only then can a truly democratic and just solution be achieved.
In essence, the Venezuelan crisis is not a binary choice between Maduro or the opposition. It is a tangled geopolitical situation where the Venezuelan people are a piece in a high-stakes game.
Venezuela is in zugzwang, a situation where the obligation to make any decision in the current scenario puts the country at a serious disadvantage. The best move, unfortunately, is not on the board right now, and that move is for the Venezuelan people and their authentically progressive organizations to take control of their destiny, rejecting being pawns in the geopolitical chessboard and building a future based on unity, justice, true democracy, and peace.